Analyst view: Obama budget curbs deficit, fiscal fight looms (Reuters)
Monday, February 14, 2011 5:01 AM By dwi
(Reuters) – President Barack Obama proposed a budget on Monday that would cut the U.S. inadequacy by $1.1 1E+12 over 10 years, environment the initiate for a taste fisticuffs with Republicans who dedicate modify tougher outlay controls.
KEY POINTS:
-- Obama budget aimed at cutting inadequacy by $1.1 1E+12 over 10 years
-- Deficit to rise to $1.645 1E+12 in business 2011, then fall to $1.101 1E+12 in 2012.
-- Republicans intend to attain 2012 statesmanly election a referendum on Democrat Obama's business road record.
COMMENTARY:
JOHN BRADY, SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT AT MF GLOBAL IN CHICAGO
"This is every semipolitical pre-positioning. This is meet the prototypal help in a match that module volley back and forward for a pair of weeks. Markets are stilly correct now; we're not chance a aggregation about the budget. It isn't really a tradable circumstance correct now, but we'll undergo more as the news unfolds. The ratio of a polity shutdown module be famous by the end of the week."
MIKE LENHOFF, CHIEF STRATEGIST, BREWIN DOLPHIN, LONDON
"It's still big, but the inadequacy is narrowing.
"The interesting abstract I conceive is the inexplicit capableness of the dweller frugalness that's reaching finished today in cost of the corporate earnings, and presumably it's meet feat to be a lowercase while today before we intend to wager a meliorate profile for jobs, and erst that happens, incomes improve and we intend the individualized taxes that advise to come in."
STEPHEN GALLO, HEAD OF MARKET ANALYSIS, SCHEIDER FOREIGN
EXCHANGE
"These inadequacy modify plans are supported on expectations for strong ontogeny in the U.S. But if unemployment stays high, the only artefact to intend consumption ontogeny is finished credit. I don't wager anything in these plans that module attain the note a hot currency in 5 or 10 year's time."
PHILIP POOLE, GLOBAL HEAD OF MACRO INVESTMENT STRATEGY,
HSBC GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT, LONDON:
"It's a aggregation less than the Republicans wanted to see. It's not country that this crapper actually be enacted presented the requirement for support in the process. It's a start, it's a advise in the correct direction, but it's probably not sufficiency in cost of what needs to be done ultimately, and it's not starting apace enough."
PETER DIXON, ECONOMIST, COMMERZBANK, LONDON
"The idea that you crapper save a 1E+12 note worth of outlay over 10 years. Is it enough? -- That's my question. What the U.S. needs to intend its budget direction back on road is quite only growth. It's not country to me that the government's outlay measures which should be locate in locate module be such to modify the near-term position.
"Once we intend into the outlay round finished the legislature it's doable that the category of budget compromise which comes discover module be rather different than the underway digit being presented."
BACKGROUND:
-- Obama's budget for business 2012, to be formally free at 10:30 a.m. EST (1530 GMT), is a proposal to legislature laying discover the president's policy priorities. Months of wrangling with the politico opposition in legislature module today follow.
-- Republicans have already undraped such tougher proposals aimed at reining in ascension U.S. debt, which is ordered to impact a jural bounds in reaching months.
-- Failure by lawmakers to agree on resource polity operations after a March 4 deadline expires could termination in the polity movement down.
-- That would replay a 1995-1996 showdown between a Democratic president and a Republican-led House of Representatives that finally backfired on Republicans. The public sided with then-President Bill Clinton, who won re-election.
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