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By Charlie CookNational Journal

Consider yourself prophetic if you crapper correctly predict who is feat to get the 2012 politico statesmanly nomination. The vie is that panoramic open.

In most years, Republicans tap the mortal whose "turn" it is to be the party's standard-bearer, and that individual's indistinguishability is ofttimes famous daylong before the start of the primary and caucus season. This time, the vie looks different. One could debate that it is past Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's invoke because she was the party's evilness statesmanly nominee in 2008. Or past river Gov. Mike Huckabee's invoke because he won the Chiwere caucus last instance around. Or past Colony Gov. Mitt Romney's invoke because he was eventual nominee John McCain's toughest competition in 2008. But hour of those arguments is specially convincing.

In most years, underway and past U.S. senators are grossly overrepresented in statesmanly fields. But with the announcement by Sen. John Thune of South Dakota that he isn't feat to run, it appears no movement party senator module start the race. Pennsylvania's Rick Santorum may be the exclusive past member of the shack to attain a bid. Current and past House members hit a dismal record in success nominations, but that hasn't stopped them before. This time, Rep. Ron Apostle of Texas looks to be the exclusive House member running, and past Speaker Newt Gingrich may be the exclusive past member in the contest.

With pedagogue so discover of favor, this could be a crusade that features lots of underway and past governors. Three movement governors are doable candidatesâ€"Haley Barbour of Mississippi, Mitch Daniels of Indiana, and Rick Perry of Texasâ€"along with fivesome past governors: Jon Huntsman of Utah, Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, Huckabee, Palin, and Romney.

(Nevada Senate: Ensign to retire; vie stays in toss up)

Each of the doable contenders has strengths and weaknesses; how voters module finally matter these pluses and minuses is unknown today. Gingrich and Palin hit near-total name recognition, sure an asset, but also unco high negatives and bounteous questions about electability. Can Huckabee improve money? Do Barbour's past job as a K Street lobbyist and his Deep South roots equilibrize his prodigious fundraising possibleness and unpaired politico Rolodex? Will Romney's undergo in streaming for president and his personal phenomenon and fundraising possibleness predominate charges that he is an ideological chamaeleon and the suasion that his Colony health organisation makes him the "father of 'Obamacare' "? Can Pawlenty embellish exciting? All these questions hit yet to be answered.

Many grouping seem unable to countenance at politicians on any axis added than left-center-right. But in terms of statesmanly nominations, there ofttimes don't seem to be many huge ideological differences. Among the possibleness politico contenders, all rebut failure and armament control, are unbelieving of Big Government, and souvenir cutting taxes and spending.

(Iowa politico voters get a taste of battle to come)

The actual differences module invoke discover to be in style, tone, temperament, and, most important, emphasis. Emphasis is key because it defines candidates to a destined honor and what pockets of voters they organisation to target. All of the possibleness candidates are pretty standpat on ethnic and ethnic issues. But an hopeful who talks about ethnic issues a aggregation is looked at differently than digit who emphasizes fiscal and economic issues. And a politician who  emphasizes economic issues is countenance at differently than digit who focuses on foreign-policy and national-security concerns (really hour in this field, though). The constituent "moderate" ofttimes is less a meaning to ideology (no Ripon Society members in this group) than to call and the temperature of rhetoric. Some candidates separate blistering and others at shack temperature, even if their fundamental positions aren't such different.

Republican enquirer Bill McInturff once jointed a create for looking at statesmanly nominations that I hit ofttimes found useful. Compare the earth to a set of NCAA basketball brackets, play at the quarterfinals. The theory goes that apiece redact features candidates with kindred appeal. This approach, when practical to the 2012 campaign, strength yield a repast band bracket, fair competitors who are first and best antigovernment and in souvenir of slashing both taxes and spending.

(How did your member of legislature vote?)

A ordinal redact strength contain candidates whose attractiveness rattling such centers on ethnic and ethnic issues. They're targeting voters who are religious, most of them evangelical, although some are Catholic, with failure a dominant issue. This year, the added two brackets strength actually be digit rattling large assemble with a straight effort to the finals: secular, establishment, business-oriented Republicans.

Thinking backwards to 2008, Huckabee was feat after digit assemble of party voters, Romney added faction, and McCain yet a third. Each was art his support from assorted pools, at small initially. Eventually, the top two this instance around module face off in the finals for the nomination. At this point, though, who the nominee module be is anybody's guess.

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